Florida Real Estate Cycles

The 1920s Florida land boom ended in 1925 and 1926, when new customers stopped arriving, earlier buyers began to sell and a 1926 hurricane wrecked many Miami developments, according to the Florida Historical Society (Florida Historical Society).

The boom ran on advertising and mail sales: the society says two-thirds of all Florida real estate was sold by mail to speculators who never visited Florida. In 1922 the Miami Herald was the heaviest newspaper in the nation because of its land advertisement sections, and Florida binder boys started deals by taking a binder, a down payment with a thirty day financing period (Florida Historical Society).

By 1925 Florida land prices had climbed so high that new customers failed to arrive and earlier buyers began to sell. The hurricane of 1926 destroyed many Miami developments, and even with the national stock market still rising, people no longer trusted buying Florida land. A terrible hurricane with winds in excess of 125 miles per hour hit South Florida in September 1928, which the society calls an unwelcome coup de grace to the Florida Land Bust (Florida Historical Society).

Florida home prices rose about 139 percent from early 2000 to a peak in the fourth quarter of 2006, then fell about 44.7 percent to a low in the second quarter of 2012, by the FHFA house price index (FRED series FLSTHPI).

The Florida all-transactions index, set at 100 in the first quarter of 1980 and not seasonally adjusted, stood at 200.74 in the first quarter of 2000 and 479.92 in the fourth quarter of 2006 (FRED). It then slid for more than five years, reaching 265.25 in the second quarter of 2012 before turning up.

Florida construction employment fell by a larger share than prices. Seasonally adjusted construction employment in Florida stood at 689,400 jobs in June 2006, the highest month from 2006 through 2012, and dropped to 332,500 in June 2011, the lowest month in that span, a loss of about 51.8 percent (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

Permits tell the same story from the builder side. Florida issued permits for 209,162 single-family homes in 2005 (Census Bureau, 2005), but only 26,636 in 2009 (Census Bureau, 2009), a drop of about 87 percent in four years. Counting duplexes, small multiplexes and buildings of five or more units, total Florida permitted units fell from 287,250 in 2005 to 35,329 in 2009.

Florida home prices took about 13 years to regain the 2006 high: the FHFA index for Florida first moved above its fourth quarter 2006 level in the first quarter of 2020 (FHFA data via FRED).

At the end of 2019 the Florida index stood at 478.55, still a fraction below the 2006 peak of 479.92, and in the first quarter of 2020 it reached 485.83 (FRED). From the 2012 low of 265.25 that is a gain of about 83 percent in less than eight years.

On the statewide index, a home bought at the fourth quarter 2006 peak did not return to that index level until the first quarter of 2020, about 13 years later. The index tracks statewide all-transactions prices, so it does not show how any single Florida county or town recovered (FRED).

Florida home prices rose about 58.8 percent between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2022 on the FHFA index, and have risen more slowly since (FHFA data via FRED).

The Florida index went from 478.55 at the end of 2019 to 760.07 in the third quarter of 2022, slipped to 755.90 in the fourth quarter of 2022 and then resumed a gentle rise (FRED). It reached 814.29 in the second quarter of 2025 and 825.70 in the second quarter of 2026, up about 1.4 percent in a year and about 8.6 percent above the third quarter of 2022.

Through the second quarter of 2026 the statewide index had not repeated the post-2006 decline: its record so far is 825.97 in the first quarter of 2026, and the second quarter of 2026 (825.70) was just under it (FRED). Builders slowed too. Florida permits for single-family homes fell from 132,959 in 2022 (Census Bureau, 2022) to 111,173 in 2025 (Census Bureau, 2025), and units in buildings of five or more fell from 72,520 to 63,075.

Florida's 2022 building safety law, CS/SB 4-D, took effect on May 26, 2022 as chapter 2022-269 and requires condominium and cooperative associations to have milestone inspections performed on certain buildings at specified times (Florida Senate).

Under section 553.899 of the Florida Statutes, a residential condominium or cooperative building of three habitable stories or more must have a milestone inspection by December 31 of the year it reaches 30 years of age, and every 10 years after that (Florida Statutes). A Florida local enforcement agency may move that first inspection to 25 years where local conditions, including proximity to salt water, call for it.

The statute set catch-up deadlines for the existing Florida condo stock. Buildings that turned 30 before July 1, 2022 needed their first milestone inspection before December 31, 2024, and buildings turning 30 between July 1, 2022 and December 31, 2024 had until December 31, 2025 (Florida Statutes). Phase one of an inspection must be completed within 180 days after the owners receive written notice from the local enforcement agency, and that agency may extend the initial deadline for good cause (Florida Statutes).

The same Florida bill prohibits associations from waiving or reducing reserves for certain items after a specified date (Florida Senate). The Legislature has amended section 553.899 again in 2023, 2024 and 2025, through chapters 2023-203, 2024-244 and 2025-175 (Florida Statutes), so the current statute, not a 2022 summary, sets the rules.

In 2026 Florida's statewide price index sat just under its first quarter record, 2025 permits were below 2022, and construction employment was about 4.7 percent below June 2006 (FRED, Census Bureau, BLS).

Florida construction employment was 656,700 in August 2026, a preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics figure, up from 651,800 in March 2026 (BLS Economy at a Glance). That is about 4.7 percent below the June 2006 level of 689,400, twenty years later, while the Florida price index in the second quarter of 2026 (825.70) was about 72 percent above its fourth quarter 2006 level (479.92).

The statewide price index is updated quarterly. FRED last updated the Florida series on August 25, 2026 and lists October 27, 2026 as the next release date (FRED series page), with the third quarter of 2026 the next quarter due. BLS marks the August 2026 Florida job figures as preliminary (BLS).

The Digital Towns economy section also covers the cost of living in Florida, Florida by the numbers, population growth projections and the snowbird and seasonal economy, which together explain much of the demand behind each Florida cycle.