Florida Snowbirds and Seasonal Economy

Florida has an estimated 802,265 homes held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, out of 1,503,660 vacant housing units, in the Census Bureau's ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates (Census Bureau, table B25004).

The American Community Survey records these Florida homes in the vacancy status table under the line for seasonal, recreational or occasional use (Census Bureau variable definitions). The statewide estimate carries a margin of error of plus or minus 10,646 units (B25004). The table's universe is vacant housing units, so it carries no count of people (Census Bureau variable definitions).

Lee County has the most seasonal-use homes of the 67 county rows, 79,437, and in Collier County 59,512 of the 73,531 vacant homes are held for seasonal use (Census Bureau, county B25004). Miami-Dade shows 119,572 vacant homes, 50,471 of them for seasonal use.

Florida private leisure and hospitality employment stood at 1,360,760 in March 2025 and 1,300,303 in September 2025 in BLS QCEW counts that are not seasonally adjusted (BLS QCEW first quarter 2025; BLS QCEW third quarter 2025).

All Florida jobs covered by unemployment insurance were 9,965,292 in March and 9,839,653 in September (QCEW Q1; QCEW Q3). Private accommodation and food services counted 1,080,509 jobs in March and 1,029,169 in September.

In Collier County, private leisure and hospitality employment was 35,900 in March 2025 and 29,342 in September, and all Collier County covered jobs were 177,653 and 165,522 (BLS QCEW Collier County Q1; BLS QCEW Collier County Q3). The QCEW month-three counts used here are the last month of each quarter.

Lee County, which has the most seasonal homes in the state, had 45,746 private leisure and hospitality jobs in March 2025 and 39,143 in September, and all Lee County covered jobs were 308,046 and 295,790 (BLS QCEW Lee County Q1; BLS QCEW Lee County Q3). In Monroe County, the Florida Keys county, leisure and hospitality held 19,135 jobs in March and 16,913 in September, out of 48,482 and 45,427 covered jobs (BLS QCEW Monroe County Q1; BLS QCEW Monroe County Q3). Monroe County shows 14,754 seasonal-use homes out of 20,429 vacant homes in the ACS 2020-2024 county table (Census Bureau, county B25004).

The state's July 17, 2026 economic forecast expects 2,989,000 Canadian visitors to Florida in 2026, down 9.0 percent from the year before, after quarterly declines of 12.2 percent in late 2025 and 13.2 percent in early 2026 against a year earlier (Florida Economic Estimating Conference).

The conference, published by the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR), projects a recovery to 3,049,000 Canadian visitors in 2027, 3,155,000 in 2028 and 3,257,000 in 2029, seasonally adjusted (EDR). These are forecasts. The December 2025 conference had forecast 2,844,000 Canadian visitors to Florida for 2026 with an 8.3 percent decline; both forecasts are printed side by side in the same packet.

The same tables forecast 2,989,000 Canadian visitors and 143,130,000 total Florida visitors in 2026, against 130,545,000 domestic and 9,596,000 overseas visitors (EDR conference tables). No official Florida table used here measures Canadian stays by county or by length of stay.

EDR converts Florida's visitors into full-time-equivalent residents, and its July 2026 forecast puts that figure at 2,032,000 for 2026, rising to 2,243,000 by 2029 (Florida Economic Estimating Conference).

That measure expresses Florida visitors as an equivalent number of full-time residents, a different unit from the raw count of visitors. The December 2025 conference had expected 2,251,000 full-time-equivalent residents for 2026, against 2,032,000 in the July forecast (EDR). For total 2026 visitors the two forecasts show 145,078,000 (December 2025) and 143,130,000 (July 2026).

In the July forecast's quarterly rows, full-time-equivalent visitors are 2,057,200 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2,125,900 in the first quarter of 2027 (EDR conference tables). The first-quarter rows for 2028 and 2029 are 2,185,800 and 2,280,000.

A person who has established a domicile in Florida may file a sworn declaration of domicile with the clerk of the circuit court in the county where they live, under section 222.17 of the Florida Statutes (Florida Statutes section 222.17).

The statute offers two forms of the declaration: one for a person whose Florida abode is their permanent home, and one for a person who keeps homes in other states but swears the Florida home is their predominant and principal home (section 222.17). The statement must name the Florida residence, the city, county and state of the former residence, and any other places of abode. It works the other way too: a person domiciled in another state who has a Florida place of abode may file a sworn statement with the clerk in a Florida county where that abode is, naming the other state as their domicile and stating the intent to keep it. The clerk records each declaration and collects a service charge.

Permanent residence also matters for property taxes. A Florida owner who makes a property their permanent residence, or the permanent residence of a dependent, may receive a homestead exemption that lowers its taxable value by as much as $50,000 and qualifies it for the state's assessment limitation, and the county property appraiser decides whether a parcel qualifies (Florida Department of Revenue). Last verified: October 18, 2026, by re-pulling Census table B25004 for the state and all 67 counties, the BLS QCEW first and third quarter 2025 files for Florida, Collier, Lee and Monroe, the July 17, 2026 EDR visitor rows, the text of s. 222.17 and the Department of Revenue exemptions page.