Florida Climate Change Projections for 2050

By 2050 most of Florida is projected to see an increase of more than 50 days at 95°F or higher (NOAA NCEI Florida State Climate Summary).

NOAA also projects that the summer heat index will climb 8° to 15°F, the largest escalation in the Nation (NOAA NCEI). The starting point is already warmer than a century ago. Temperatures in Florida have risen more than 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century, and while daytime warming has been generally lacking, nighttime warmth has increased dramatically since 1995: the number of very warm nights in 2015 to 2020 was more than double the numbers of the mid-20th century (NOAA NCEI). NOAA also notes that Florida typically sees far fewer days above 100°F than most other southern states but is the most humid state in the Nation (NOAA NCEI).

The 2050 range depends on the emissions pathway, yet NOAA says that even under a lower emissions pathway, annual average temperatures in Florida are projected to most likely exceed historical record levels by the middle of the century (NOAA NCEI). The Southeast chapter of the Fifth National Climate Assessment adds that the number of extreme warm days above 95°F is expected to keep rising with every increment of global warming across the region that includes Florida (NCA5, Chapter 22).

The Fifth National Climate Assessment puts average sea level rise for the Southeast, Florida included, at 16 to 23 inches by 2050 relative to 2000 across its Low to High scenarios (NCA5 Southeast chapter).

Those numbers are measured from a 2000 baseline, so part of the rise has already happened: tide gauges throughout the Southeast show relative sea level rose by 6 inches during 1970 to 2020 (NCA5). The chapter gives one Florida city as an example, projecting 10 to 19 inches by 2050 for Jacksonville, and notes the regional numbers run higher than the global average because of land motion, groundwater pumping and ocean current changes (NCA5). By 2100 the same Southeast range widens to 2.2 to 7.3 feet (NCA5).

The national benchmark comes from the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report, the first multi-agency update since 2017: sea level along the U.S. coastline is predicted to rise 10 to 12 inches over the next 30 years, with scenarios running out to 2150 (NOAA 2022 Technical Report). Florida law names two of that report's scenarios, intermediate-low and intermediate, as the minimum for local vulnerability assessments (s. 380.093, F.S.).

High tide flooding events in the Southeast, which includes the Florida coast, may increase by a factor of 5 to 10 by 2050 because of sea level rise, according to the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5).

NOAA makes the same point nationally: in the next 30 years, coastal flooding is expected to occur on average more than 10 times as often as it does today (NOAA 2022 Technical Report). The assessment also says the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios project a higher frequency of compound flooding by midcentury along the Atlantic coast, where rain, tide and surge overlap (NCA5).

Key West shows the shape of the curve. Tidal flooding there has been rare, with 2 events recorded in 1944 and one each in 1965, 2005 and 2017, but NOAA projects about 15 to 95 tidal flood days a year by 2050 under the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate scenarios, and about 230 to 365 days by 2100 (NOAA NCEI). One caution for readers in the Keys: that Key West chart is built on the NOAA 2017 scenarios, while Florida law now points local planners to the 2022 scenarios, so the published Key West day counts are an older generation of projections (NOAA NCEI; s. 380.093, F.S.).

NOAA projects that hurricane rainfall rates will increase as the climate warms and that extreme precipitation and drought will both become more frequent and intense in Florida, while summer rainfall totals remain uncertain (NOAA NCEI).

The number of landfalling hurricanes in Florida is highly variable from year to year, and NOAA notes that the annual frequency of hurricanes has remained relatively stable throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries; its record shows 4 events in 2004 and 5 in 2005, followed by no landfalling hurricanes in Florida from 2006 to 2015 (NOAA NCEI).

Drought is the other side of the same forecast. In every decade since 1900, Florida has had at least one severe and widespread drought, and NOAA expects rising temperatures to dry soils faster, which will likely increase the intensity of naturally occurring droughts (NOAA NCEI). The statewide record already swings widely, from 40.3 inches of precipitation in 2000, the driest year, to 72.9 inches in 1947, the wettest (NOAA NCEI). In low-lying coastal areas, NOAA adds, increased inland flooding during heavy rain is a threat because mere inches of sea level rise can impair the capacity of stormwater drainage systems to empty into the ocean (NOAA NCEI).

Florida law requires a local vulnerability assessment started after July 1, 2024 to use, at a minimum, the 2022 NOAA intermediate-low and intermediate sea level rise scenarios or the statewide projections, measured in NAVD88 (Florida Statutes, section 380.093).

The statute requires at least two planning horizons from a fixed table. For the assessment year 2029, the 20-year planning horizon is 2050 and the 50-year horizon is 2080, which is how 2050 becomes a legal planning date for Florida counties and cities rather than just a round number (s. 380.093, F.S.). The law also directs assessments to use local sea level data maintained by the Florida Flood Hub where it reflects the best available science certified by the state Chief Science Officer (s. 380.093, F.S.).

The same section spells out what a Florida assessment must model for each scenario and horizon. Tidal flooding analysis must use high tide thresholds published by FDEP and, where practicable, map the number of tidal flood days expected, and the storm surge analysis must start from an event equal to or larger than the current 100-year flood (s. 380.093, F.S.). Noncoastal communities must perform a rainfall-induced flooding assessment, and compound flooding from tide, surge and rain together is to be included to the extent practicable (s. 380.093, F.S.).

FDEP turns those assessments into money each year. The department must deliver a Statewide Flooding and Sea Level Rise Resilience Plan every December 1 on a 3-year planning horizon, and the Fiscal Year 2026-27 plan, dated December 2025, ranked 123 eligible proposals and set Year 1 funding at $100 million (FDEP Statewide Plan FY 2026-27).

Last verified: October 15, 2026, on the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and Online Sunshine (Florida Legislature) websites.

FDEP, working with the Florida Flood Hub, develops the statewide sea level rise estimates and flood vulnerability data set for Florida, alongside the NOAA projections cited on this page (FDEP Statewide Assessment).

The Florida Flood Hub for Applied Research and Innovation was established by the state within the University of South Florida College of Marine Science; under s. 380.0933 it builds statewide open-source hydrologic models, real-time compound and tidal flooding forecasts and estimates of future groundwater elevation (FDEP Florida Flood Hub page). FDEP Chief Science Officer Dr. Mark Rains worked with the Flood Hub to develop statewide sea level rise estimates that feed the Comprehensive Statewide Flood Vulnerability and Sea Level Rise Data Set, now built into the Statewide Vulnerability Assessment and SLIP tool (FDEP).

A reading tip for Floridians comparing numbers: the NOAA state summary drew its rainfall maps from CMIP5 models and its Key West chart from the 2017 scenarios, while the Fifth National Climate Assessment and the state statute use the 2022 scenarios, so a 2050 figure should always be read with its source year beside it (NOAA NCEI; NCA5).