Florida Water Supply Future

Florida's statewide water use is projected to rise by about 754.53 million gallons per day (mgd), or about 11.36 percent, between 2025 and 2045, based on water management district data compiled by the Legislature's economists (EDR 2025).

The Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) puts projected statewide 2045 demand at 7,395.77 mgd (EDR Annual Assessment, 2025 Edition). Roughly two-thirds of the increase, 521.81 mgd, falls in four Florida planning regions: the North Florida Regional Water Supply Partnership area, the Central Florida Water Initiative (CFWI) area, and the Lower East Coast and Lower West Coast regions of South Florida.

Only one Florida planning region expects water use to fall by 2045: the Upper East Coast region of the South Florida Water Management District, largely because agricultural irrigation is expected to decline (EDR).

The scale already in use is large. SFWMD reports that more than 3 billion gallons of water are used every day in central and southern Florida by over 9 million residents and millions of visitors (SFWMD).

Florida plans water supply through regional water supply plans that DEP says each water management district creates every five years, looking 20 years ahead (Florida DEP).

Chapter 373 treats all Florida water, on the surface or in the ground, as a public resource managed by DEP and the five districts (DEP Office of Water Policy). Section 373.709 requires each plan to cover at least a 20-year planning period and to meet needs during a 1-in-10-year drought event, and a district that decides a region needs no plan must reevaluate that decision at least once every 5 years (s. 373.709, F.S.). Under section 373.709, DEP's Office of Water Policy publishes an annual status report on regional water supply planning, and the 2024 Annual Status Report is the edition its water supply page presented on October 15, 2026 (Florida DEP).

The Southwest Florida Water Management District published its first plan in 2001 and updates it every five years in accordance with section 373.709; its 2025 Regional Water Supply Plan covers 2025 through 2045 in four planning regions, Northern, Tampa Bay, Heartland and Southern (SWFWMD). SFWMD lists a planning cycle with projections to 2050, running from the Upper East Coast plan year of 2025-2026 to the Upper Kissimmee Basin (CFWI) plan year of 2029-2030 (SFWMD). The Northwest Florida district divides the Panhandle into seven planning regions and has updated its Water Supply Assessment every five years since the first in 1998 (NWFWMD).

Florida's plans fill the gap with conservation and alternative water supplies, and DEP reports that reclaimed water remains the most frequently used method of water supply development (Florida DEP).

DEP lists Florida's alternative sources as reclaimed water, brackish groundwater and seawater desalination, and says the districts are also studying surface reservoirs, aquifer storage and recovery, and recharging the aquifer with stormwater and reclaimed water (DEP). Reclaimed water is domestic wastewater given a high degree of treatment and reused for a new purpose under DEP rules in Chapter 62-610, Florida Administrative Code (DEP Water Reuse Program).

Conservation shrinks the gap. EDR estimates conservation could offset 450.93 mgd by 2045 statewide, which would reduce projected 2045 demand by 6.10 percent, from 7,395.77 mgd to 6,944.84 mgd (EDR).

One North Florida project shows how recharge could work. The 2023 North Florida Regional Water Supply Plan, approved by the St. Johns River and Suwannee River districts in December 2023, has a First Addendum whose project list includes Water First North Florida, a 40 mgd project in the planning phase that would pass reclaimed water from JEA's Buckman and Southwest facilities through a wetland treatment system to further reduce nutrients before it is pumped to aquifer recharge sites (2023 NFRWSP First Addendum).

Not entirely: the 2025 CFWI Regional Water Supply Plan finds fresh groundwater available up to 760 mgd against 2045 groundwater demand of 856 mgd, a shortfall of about 96 mgd (SFWMD).

The CFWI planning area covers Orange, Osceola, Polk and Seminole counties and southern Lake County, and SFWMD says Central Florida's population now exceeds 3.4 million (SFWMD news release). The plan still concludes that demands can be met through 2045 with appropriate management, diversified sources, conservation and a portfolio of 167 water supply and resource development projects and 27 water conservation projects.

Central Florida spending is already under way. From 2020 through 2024, the water management districts and DEP invested about $397.5 million in 36 alternative water supply projects that are complete or under construction, creating over 88 million gallons per day of new water supply; about $2.85 million more went to 30 water conservation projects projected to save over one million gallons per day (SFWMD).

EDR projects that meeting Florida's 2025 to 2045 demand increase will cost $2,395.89 million, including a projected state expenditure of $777.03 million (EDR 2025).

EDR calls those Florida figures, in 2024 dollars, substantially higher than its previous projection for the 2020 through 2040 horizon, and its inferred shortage assumes average weather conditions (EDR Annual Assessment). Drought changes the picture: if a 1-in-10 year drought occurs in 2045, the inferred supply shortage can increase approximately four times, from 390.27 mgd to 1,501.24 mgd.

The 1-in-10 drought standard matters because Florida law makes it the planning target: section 373.709 requires the level-of-certainty goal for each regional plan to be based on meeting needs for a 1-in-10-year drought event (s. 373.709, F.S.).

The next Florida changes come from the scheduled plan updates and the 2050 projection horizon in South Florida (SFWMD), plus building-standard choices for new homes (2023 NFRWSP First Addendum).

Figures quoted widely for Florida's water future often come from older plan cycles. The 2025 CFWI plan concludes that the fresh groundwater availability of up to 760 mgd identified in the 2020 plan is still valid (SFWMD), and the 2024 status report is the edition DEP's water supply page presented in October 2026 (DEP), so readers comparing numbers should check the plan year on each figure.

Home construction is one lever the districts have priced. The 2023 North Florida plan addendum found that a Florida Water Star Silver program at a 100 percent participation level, starting in 2030, would reduce the 2045 public supply groundwater demand of 269.3 mgd by 2.6 percent, or 6.9 mgd, at an increased construction cost of $1,400 per home (2023 NFRWSP First Addendum). Last verified: October 15, 2026, on the water management district and EDR websites.