The 2026 Hurricane Season and Florida: NOAA's Outlooks and the Record So Far

The official Atlantic hurricane season, the one that applies to Florida, runs from June 1 to November 30, so the 2026 season closes on November 30, 2026 (NOAA National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Climatology).

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) marks September 10 as the climatological peak, with the bulk of activity falling from mid August through mid October, and says tropical cyclones occasionally form outside the June to November window (NHC climatology). Its 1991 to 2020 baseline season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, with a first named storm usually in mid to late June, a first hurricane in early to mid August and a first major hurricane around late August or early September (NHC climatology). The NHC defines the Atlantic basin as the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America (NHC climatology).

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said on May 21, 2026 that a below normal season was most likely, at 55 percent (NOAA CPC, 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, May).

For the 2026 hurricane season, the same Climate Prediction Center outlook gave a 35 percent chance of a near normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above normal one (CPC May outlook).

The May outlook gave a 70 percent probability for each of these ranges: 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, 1 to 3 major hurricanes, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 45 to 115 percent of the median (CPC May outlook). Its main reason was El Nino: CPC put the odds of El Nino during the August to October peak at 98 percent, with 2 percent for ENSO neutral, and said El Nino during the current high activity era is typically tied to near or below average hurricane activity (CPC May outlook). The May text also warned that spring forecasts generally have limited skill (CPC May outlook).

The August 6, 2026 update lowered the numbers and raised the odds of a below normal season to 75 percent, with 20 percent for near normal and a nominal 5 percent for above normal (NOAA CPC, updated 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, August).

The August ranges counted the 2 named storms already recorded and the 3 percent of median ACE already logged by then (CPC August update). CPC tied the cut to a strengthening El Nino: the July official ENSO forecast gave a 90 percent chance of a strong or very strong El Nino during August to October and a 48 percent chance of a very strong one, and CPC noted that every hurricane season during a strong El Nino since 1950 has had below normal activity (CPC August update). The update also cited model forecasts of above normal vertical wind shear over the main development region (CPC August update).

CPC did not drop every favorable signal. It said the conditions behind the high activity era that began in 1995, including warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weaker trade winds, were likely to continue in 2026, but that El Nino appeared likely to disrupt the atmospheric part of that pattern; it also noted that the main development region, roughly 10N to 20N and 20W to 85W across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, was well below the tropical mean in relative warmth, with stronger than normal trade winds in parts of it (CPC August update). For Florida, those basin wide signals say nothing about where storms would track, a limit CPC itself spells out.

Through 03 UTC on October 19, 2026, NHC counts 9 named storms, 1 hurricane and 1 major hurricane in the Atlantic (NHC 2026 North Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary).

NHC puts total ACE at 18.0, 83 percent below the 1991 to 2020 normal, and lists no direct deaths and no U.S. damage for the season to date (NHC 2026 season table).

The first eight storms all peaked as tropical storms: Arthur (June 17 to 18), Bertha (July 19 to 23), Cristobal (August 12 to 13), Dolly (August 27 to 28), Edouard (August 31 to September 2), Fay (September 19 to 29, top winds 60 knots), Gonzalo (September 25 to 26) and Hanna (September 28 to 30) (NHC 2026 season table). The ninth, Isaias, is listed as a major hurricane, with dates of October 6 to 10 (UTC), maximum winds of 105 knots, a minimum pressure of 959 millibars and 7.2 units of ACE (NHC 2026 season table).

These figures are operational. Since the 2025 season NHC has published the season statistics on its website instead of the old monthly text summary, updates them at least monthly during the season, and revises them once the post season Tropical Cyclone Reports are finished (NHC Monthly Tropical Weather Summary notice).

Yes: FEMA declared emergency EM-3655-FL for Hurricane Isaias on October 9, 2026, for an incident that began October 6, with Public Assistance authorized and Individual Assistance not authorized (FEMA OpenFEMA, EM-3655 declaration records).

The OpenFEMA records list these designated Florida counties: Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Citrus, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Suwannee (OpenFEMA EM-3655), plus Taylor, Wakulla, Walton and Washington (OpenFEMA EM-3655, remaining rows).

The Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) carried an Isaias updates notice on its site when checked, and its evacuation zone page urges residents each year to learn whether they live in an evacuation zone, a low lying flood prone area, a mobile home or an unsafe structure, since those are the places most likely to be evacuated (FDEM evacuation zone guidance). Evacuation zones and shelters are covered in the statewide evacuation guide.

NOAA's outlook is a basin wide forecast of activity, not a landfall forecast, and it does not predict activity for any particular location such as Florida (CPC May outlook).

CPC explains that landfalls depend largely on the weather patterns in place as a hurricane approaches, which are usually predictable only within several days of landfall, and it warns that hurricane disasters can happen in any season, even one with low overall activity (CPC May outlook). Its ranges are expected to hold in 70 percent of seasons with similar conditions, and they do not cover every possible outcome (CPC August update).

One practical change for Florida households predates this season. Since August 1, 2025, items once covered only by tax holidays are always exempt from Florida sales tax, including AA, AAA, C, D, 6 volt and 9 volt batteries, portable generators of 10,000 running watts or less, portable gas or diesel cans of 5 gallons or less, ground anchor systems and tie down kits, and waterproof tarps of 1,000 square feet or less (Florida Department of Revenue, TIP 25A01-05). The Department of Revenue issued that notice on July 1, 2025, under Section 46, Chapter 2025-208, Laws of Florida, and Taxpayer Services answers at 850-488-6800 (DOR TIP 25A01-05).

Last verified: October 18, 2026, by rereading both 2026 CPC outlooks, the NHC season table stamped 03 UTC October 19 and the NHC climatology page, querying OpenFEMA for EM-3655, and reopening the DOR notice and the FDEM zone page.