Sea Level Rise in Tampa

Tampa Bay rose about 9.6 inches from 1947 to 2025 at the St. Petersburg tide gauge, according to the 2025 Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel recommendation.

The long record for Tampa comes from one NOAA instrument across the bay from downtown, station 8726520, which NOAA's station metadata lists as established on December 14, 1946. The NOAA sea level trend data for that station runs from January 1947 through December 2025 and shows a trend of 1.23 inches per decade, with a stated error of 0.05 inches per decade.

The panel's earlier count was smaller because the record was shorter: its April 2019 report said water levels in Tampa Bay had already increased approximately 7.8 inches since 1946. Both reports tell local governments to regionally correct their projections using St. Petersburg tide gauge data, which is why a gauge in Pinellas County sets the baseline for planning on the Tampa side of the bay.

The Tampa Bay station measures more than the water line. NOAA's sensor list for St. Petersburg includes a microwave water level sensor alongside wind, air temperature, water temperature and barometric pressure sensors, and the station datums record puts the highest water level in its history on September 27, 2024. The 2025 panel report adds that local tide gauge data indicates a 190% increase in annual high tide flooding days over the past three decades.

The panel's current recommendation, updated in June 2025, is that the Tampa Bay region can expect to see an additional 2 to 5.5 feet of sea level rise by 2100.

The 2025 report describes CSAP, formed in spring 2014, as an ad hoc network of scientists and resource managers working in the Tampa Bay region, and it recommends one common set of projections for Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota counties. Planners are told to use one of three scenarios described in the Fifth National Climate Assessment: Intermediate Low, Intermediate or Intermediate High.

The range has moved with each national assessment. CSAP released recommended projections in 2015 and 2019, and the 2019 update, built on the 4th National Climate Assessment of November 2018, projected 2 to 8.5 feet by 2100 and said the NOAA Low scenario should not be used for planning purposes. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, one of whose research engineers sat on the panel, announced that report on May 17, 2019 as guidance for local governments to coordinate coastal adaptation. The 2025 document updates it for the Fifth National Climate Assessment and for the statewide projections now issued by the Florida Flood Hub, based at the University of South Florida.

Sources: CSAP 2019 report; CSAP 2025 update.

The CSAP figures published with the 2025 update show three recommended sea level rise scenarios for St. Petersburg, FL based on regionally corrected NOAA 2022 curves, plotted next to the 1947 to 2025 monthly mean sea level record. The Tampa Bay Estuary Program hosts a dashboard produced for that update, where tidal gage height data and projections under different scenarios can be viewed.

Low ground built over former wetlands and inland basins that already flood are Tampa's weak points, according to the City of Tampa Vulnerability Assessment completed in 2025.

The City of Tampa Vulnerability Assessment gives the elevation picture. Most of the city is at or above elevation 7 feet NAVD88, putting it above expected future sea elevations, yet growth has expanded the urban footprint into low-lying areas, in some cases building new land over historic wetlands or oyster bars. Development has also filled open spaces that once served as part of the drainage system, and many historic drainage mechanisms like sinks no longer function or function at a reduced capacity.

The assessment ranks the threats by how often they arrive. Extreme rainfall, like the 13 inches that fell during Hurricane Milton, is the most frequent and consistent threat; sea level rise is a slower moving impact, but one that will combine with the seasonal threat of storm surge to cause significant damage to Tampa's neighborhoods. The City notes that most of Tampa is above 5 feet NAVD88, but during Hurricane Helene (2024) water elevations reached 8 feet NAVD88. Because conditions vary along the coast, the City concludes that a uniform strategy will not help and that each stretch calls for a tailored adaptation approach.

The regional view is similar. The 2025 CSAP report counts nearly 700 miles of shoreline and 3.6 million residents in the Tampa Bay region, most of whom live near Tampa Bay or the Gulf, and calls the region highly vulnerable to the potential effects of sea level rise.

Tampa plans for higher water through three City efforts: a 2020 grant-funded sea level rise study, the 2021 Resilient Tampa roadmap and the 2025 vulnerability assessment.

The first dedicated study began with a state grant. In 2020, according to the City Planning Department, Tampa was awarded a $75,000 grant from the Florida Resilient Coastlines Program to study the impacts of sea level rise and recommend changes to land use, zoning and building regulations. The project page names the partners: the Florida Center for Community Design and Research at USF, the Hillsborough County Planning Commission and other agencies.

The study ran as a public series. An online webinar on Tuesday, November 24 kicked off the planning effort as the first of three community meetings; a three-hour webinar on January 12 included a Tampa Bay Estuary Program session on the state of sea level rise in Tampa Bay and a session on which areas of the city are most at risk; an April 7 webinar presented initial findings and regulatory options; and recommendations were presented on May 12. The project page lists eight reports, from Report I, Background and Inventory, to Report VIII, the Final Sea Level Rise Map, including an Illustrated Guide and a Homeowners Guide. The City's key finding is that although sea level rise is a long and incremental process, deferring action will make future decision-making and adaptation more difficult.

The broader framework is Resilient Tampa, which Mayor Jane Castor released on May 27, 2021 as the city's first resilience roadmap. The City of Tampa announcement credited Whit Remer, Tampa's first Sustainability and Resilience Officer, with leading it, with support from the nonprofit Resilient Cities Catalyst. The roadmap includes 4 chapters, 13 goals and 58 actions, and its Climate Ready Infrastructure chapter commits the city to strengthening existing and future infrastructure against climate-driven shocks and stresses. The 2025 vulnerability assessment, funded through the Resilient Florida program in compliance with Florida statute 380.093, is meant to serve as a guide to prioritize resilient infrastructure projects.

Tampa leans on the panel's regional curves because one shared set of projections lets every government around the bay plan from the same assumptions.

The 2025 CSAP report says that with shared projections, local governments can focus on coordinating and carrying out coastal adaptation rather than on gathering information and modeling future scenarios, and that the recommendation advances the objectives of the Tampa Bay Regional Resiliency Coalition. The original guidance called for the numbers to be revisited at a minimum of every five years, or sooner if significant new scientific information became available.

The economic stakes are dated figures and have changed between reports. The 2019 report valued the Tampa Bay regional economy at $170 billion, with $51 billion directly influenced by the bay (citing a 2014 study), while the 2025 update gives $182 billion, with $32 billion directly influenced by the bay (citing a 2023 study). Both reports note that a number of studies, citing the World Bank in 2013 and Climate Central in 2017, have identified the Tampa Bay region as one of the most vulnerable coastal metropolitan areas in the world due to sea level rise and flooding.

Last verified: October 18, 2026, by re-reading NOAA's St. Petersburg station trend, metadata and datum records, the 2019 and 2025 CSAP reports, the USGS and Tampa Bay Estuary Program pages, and five City of Tampa planning, resilience and vulnerability pages.