Sea Level Rise in Miami: Projections, King Tides and Flood Projects

The regional projection Miami-Dade County has accepted or adopted calls for 10 to 17 inches of sea level rise by 2040 and 21 to 54 inches by 2070, measured from the 2000 mean sea level.

Those ranges come from the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, whose third unified projection, released in 2019, set three horizons: 2040 for the short term, 2070 for the medium term and 2120 for the long term, when the range widens to 40 to 136 inches (Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, 2019 projection). The baseline is the 2000 mean sea level in Key West (Compact, Climate Indicators). Miami-Dade County is a founding member of the Compact (Miami-Dade County, Sea Level Rise Strategy), and the Compact reports that the 2019 projection and its guidance report have been accepted or adopted by all four Compact counties (Compact, Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection).

The projection is not new, and that is deliberate. In the fourth quarter of 2024 the Compact checked it against NOAA's 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report and the observed trend, and issued guidance to keep using the 2019 projection for resilience planning, design and construction (Compact, Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection). The observed record backs the near-term range: sea level in the region is rising one to two inches per decade, and at Key West the rise from 2000 to 2023 is about six inches, with a rapid increase from 2012 to 2023 whose cause scientists have not concluded definitively (Compact, Climate Indicators).

The NOAA tide gauge for the Miami area is Virginia Key, station 8723214 on Virginia Key, operating since January 1994.

NOAA lists the Virginia Key station as established Jan 26, 1994, and its highest recorded water level is 3.56 ft above mean higher high water, set on Sep 10, 2017 (NOAA Tides and Currents, Virginia Key station 8723214). The station page also posts live water levels and the day's predicted tides for Virginia Key; on October 18, 2026 it listed a 3:30 PM high tide of 2.3 ft.

The Compact does not use the Virginia Key gauge as its reference: it measures its projection from the 2000 mean sea level in Key West and reports the Key West tide gauge as its example of observed rise (Compact, Climate Indicators). The Compact bases its observed rate on the limited number of NOAA tide gauges in Southeast Florida and their varying records, and on that basis gives a regional range of one to two inches per decade.

The City of Miami expects king tide flooding in six windows from September to November 2026, with the last peak days of the year falling October 24 to 30.

The city defines king tides as unusually high tides of roughly three hours that return predictably each fall, from September through November, and warns they can put water on streets near waterways and the coast, and in low elevation areas that are not coastal, when it is not raining (City of Miami, King Tides). Flooding usually runs about 1.5 hours before and after the posted peak tide time.

The next peak window starts Saturday, October 24, with peak tides at 8:11 AM and 8:20 PM that day, moving later each day to 1:07 PM on Friday, October 30 (City of Miami). The city's advice is practical: do not drive through floodwater, do not park in low lying areas, expect lower clearance under fixed bridges by boat, and use sand bags on low lying properties. Residents can report king tide flooding in their neighborhood through ISeeChange, which the city links from its king tide page.

Yes, the USGS found that between 2018 and 2022 salt water at the base of the Biscayne aquifer moved up to 0.3 kilometer farther inland in northern Miami-Dade and up to 0.8 kilometer in the south.

The Biscayne aquifer is Miami-Dade County's primary drinking water source, and its highly permeable karstic limestone and carbonate sand make it susceptible to saltwater intrusion (U.S. Geological Survey, saltwater intrusion map, 2022). The USGS has mapped the saltwater front since the 1950s, tracing the 1,000 milligram per liter chloride line from borehole logs and groundwater samples. Its 2022 map, released December 8, 2025, shows advance in the north and in the Model Land Area to the south, while the east-central part of the county stayed relatively unchanged from its 2018 position.

The City of Miami treats the aquifer as part of its flood problem: its Stormwater Master Plan update lists groundwater levels, salt water intrusion and sea level rise projections among the factors it will consider (City of Miami, Coastal and Stormwater Infrastructure).

The City of Miami set aside $192 million of the $400 million Miami Forever Bond for flood work, and it began with tidal backflow valves and more pumping at existing stations.

City residents voted for the Miami Forever Bond in November 2017 (City of Miami). It is a general obligation bond in five categories, flood work plus four others: roads, parks and cultural sites, public safety and affordable housing (City of Miami, Miami Forever Bond). Its first tranche of $58.7 million was spread across all categories, and a Citizens' Oversight Board appointed by the City Commission reviews project management and progress reports. The first flood jobs, the city says, are cheap fixes with large returns, tidal backflow prevention valves and extra capacity at pump stations already in place, and says the bigger projects that follow will be chosen through a rewritten Stormwater Master Plan built to carry flood planning four to five decades ahead (City of Miami, Coastal and Stormwater Infrastructure).

The department's current list pairs the master plan with eleven named jobs, ten of them neighborhood drainage upgrades, among them Shorecrest South, Edgewater, Allapattah and East Little Havana, plus a seawall and resiliency rebuild on Brickell Bay Drive (City of Miami, Resilience and Public Works). Its offices are on the 8th Floor of Miami Riverside Center, 444 S.W. 2nd Avenue, phone (305) 416-1200, and a project map sorts the work by commission district.

Last verified: October 18, 2026, on the City of Miami, Miami-Dade County, NOAA, USGS and Compact websites.

Miami-Dade County's Sea Level Rise Strategy, which grew out of 2015 task force recommendations, offers five ways to adapt and applies them neighborhood by neighborhood through Adaptation Action Areas, starting with Little River.

The Board of County Commissioners unanimously approved the Sea Level Rise Task Force recommendations in 2015, and the Enhanced Capital Plan they called for evolved into the strategy, a main report with three mini guides (Miami-Dade County, Sea Level Rise Strategy). The five approaches are Build on Fill, Build Like the Keys (structures on pilings), Build on High Ground Around Transit, Expand Greenways and Blueways along canals and waterfront parks, and Create Green and Blue Neighborhoods with small spaces for water in yards, streets and parks.

The first Adaptation Action Area is Little River. The county is also the nonfederal sponsor for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers coastal storm risk studies, including the Back Bay feasibility study, and for a harbor navigation study with PortMiami (Miami-Dade County). Among partner initiatives, the county lists the Resilient305 Strategy, which called for the Sea Level Rise Strategy as its Action 7, while City of Miami street drainage and seawall projects run through Resilience and Public Works.